The Actuarial Foundation

Modeling the Future Challenge

The Modeling the Future Challenge (MTFC) is a national academic competition for high school students in the United States that combines mathematical modeling with real-world risk analysis. Students work in teams of 1-5 members to identify, model, and analyze risks facing society, then develop recommendations for mitigation strategies. The competition progresses through three phases: a Qualifying Scenario Phase where teams respond to mission prompts, a Project Phase where teams develop an open-theme mathematical modeling project, and a Finalist Phase where top teams present their work at a virtual symposium. The challenge provides mentorship opportunities and emphasizes the application of advanced mathematics (statistics, calculus, probability, mathematical modeling) to practical problems. Teams submit comprehensive project reports demonstrating their data methodology, mathematical approaches, risk analysis, and evidence-based recommendations. The competition is managed by the Institute of Competition Sciences and sponsored by The Actuarial Foundation, promoting mathematical literacy and introducing students to actuarial science and risk modeling careers.